Risk Simulator
Random trades, run hundreds of times. Flip Risk Management on to cut every loss at the Risk and take every win at the Reward, and watch what it does to your P&L.
Account size
$
Position size
Sizing
Risk : Reward
Trades
Trade-by-trade outcomes
One bar per trade. Random results from -10% to +10%.
ProfitLoss
Risk Management
P&L
+$2.7K
+27.2% on account
Max DD
-8.3%
vs -0.7% with rules
Win rate
52.7%
breakeven 50.2%
Equity curve
| Risk Management | Avg win | Avg loss | Payoff | EV | Breakeven WR | PF | Max DD | Best/worst | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | +2.73% | -1.00% | 2.73 | +0.92% | 26.8% | 3.05 | -0.7% | +3% / -1% | $19.2K |
| OFF | +5.60% | -5.64% | 0.99 | +0.27% | 50.2% | 1.11 | -8.3% | +10% / -10% | $12.7K |
Statistical proof (Monte Carlo)
1,000 separate runs of your settings. Risk Management ON stops every loss at the Risk (-1%) and takes every win at the Reward (+3%).
Risk Management OFF
Runs ending in profit475 / 1,000 (95% CI 44.4% to 50.6%)
Median final equity$9.8K (-1.5%)
Mean final equity$10K (-0.3%)
Risk Management ON
Runs ending in profit1,000 / 1,000 (95% CI 99.6% to 100.0%)
Median final equity$18.1K (+80.7%)
Mean final equity$18.1K (+80.9%)
How it works
- Trades: each trade is a random result from -10% to +10%, pure luck, no skill.
- Risk Management: ON caps every loss at the Risk (-1%) and every win at the Reward (+R). A -8% trade becomes -1%; a +8% trade becomes +R%; anything already inside the band is left alone. OFF takes each trade as it comes.
- Why it lifts P&L: the big losing trades hurt the account far more than the big wins help it. Capping the losses at a small -1% is what turns a break-even game into a profitable one. Toggle the switch and watch the P&L and the drawdown move.
- Risk : Reward: the higher the Reward you aim for while still cutting losses at -1%, the more the rules help, but the less often you win. The Breakeven WR is the win rate you need just to stay even.
- Runs ending in profit: out of 1,000 runs, how many finished ahead, with a 95% confidence interval. Read it as a count and a range, not as a probability: even when all 1,000 end ahead, the honest statement is "the true share is at least ~99.6%", and that share belongs to this model, not to real trading.
- Limitation: a toy for intuition. It assumes a loss left alone keeps running, so a stop always saves the difference. Real markets can snap back after your stop, and a stop only ever caps a loss, it never creates an edge from nothing.
- Data: hypothetical random data for education.
Trade everything that moves
Prove the strategy and manage up to $200k in real buying power